orlando-2016-1 ORLANDO-FALL NABC 2016-NOV. 24-DIC. 4

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December 04       


With only your side vulnerable, West opens 3, partner passes and East ups the ante to 4. You have no qualms about bidding 5, and everyone passes. The Q is led. Plan the play.


The full deal: aaxx

You are in the dummy for the last time and have to decide whether to lead up to the K or take the club finesse. The club finesse is much less than 50% because you can’t pick up K-x-x(x) in the East hand. Play the odds and lead a diamond up to the king, a 50% play unless West started with a singleton diamond and didn’t lead it – not too likely as most players lead singletons even when they don’t have one. If the K loses to the ace and today is your lucky day, the K will drop under the ace (13%). You will make this contract about 55% of the time.

Even if you had eight clubs to the A-K-J-10, you should still lead a diamond at trick two as you have a reasonable chance of dropping the Q (a little more than 50%) if the diamond king loses to West’s ace. Two chances are better than one.