Source: CAC 1975 Bulletin
April 1975
My advice is to study the early discards and consider this point: From what holding would the defender most readily have made those discards? The answer often will resolve a critical guess.
For example, a defender who holds A-5-3-2 or K-5-3-2 will discard from that suit more readily than if he had held Q-5-3-2 or J-5-3-2.
That will give you a clue in situations of this kind:
(1)
| J 7 6 | ||
| Q 9 4 | A 5 3 2 | |
| K 10 8 |
(2)
| J 8 6 2 | ||
| A 5 3 | Q 9 4 | |
| K 10 7 |
This is a side suit in a trump contract and declarer needs to establish one fast trick. In (1) East has made two early discards. Conclusion: he is more likely to hold A-x-x-x than Q-x-x-x. In (2) West makes an early discard. Conclusion: he is more likely to have discarded from A-x-x than from Q-x-x.
(3)
| A 8 |
||
| J 9 4 | K 7 5 3 2 | |
| Q 10 6 |
(4)
| K 10 8 |
||
| A 5 3 2 |
J 7 6 | |
| Q 9 4 |
In (3) East makes two early discards. When you play ace and 8 he follows with 5 and 7. Play him for K-x-x-x-x rather than J-x-x-x-x. In (4) West discards twice. He is more likely to have come down to A-x than to J-x; but if a low card to the king is headed by the ace, be inclined to play East for A-J-x. Such inferences are especially strong when dummy has what may seem to a defender to be an esta-blishable suit, as here:
Dlr: South Vul: None
 10 5 2 K J 6 3 A 7 3 8 6 4 |
||
| 9 3 Q 10 8 10 9 5 4 K J 7 3 |
J 7 A 9 5 2 J 8 6 A 10 9 5 |
|
| A K Q 8 6 4 7 4 K Q 2 Q 2 |
| North | South | |
| 1 |
1NT | |
| 3 |
4 |
West leads 3 and South ruffs the third round. There is something to be said for leading a heart at once, putting West under some pressure if he holds the ace, but instead the declarer plays four rounds of trumps, discarding a diamond from dummy. (It is good play to keep the heart holding intact.) West throws a club and a diamond, East a club and a heart. After cashing three diamonds, South leads a heart and West plays the 8. South should finesse the jack. Why? Because of East’s heart discard. With A-9-x-x East, expecting the contract to depend on the heart guess, would not think it necessary to keep all four. But with Q-9-x-x he would not let a heart go, in case declarer held A-x. As so often is the case, the discard tells the story.