There are two basic sources of information in counting a hand. They might be called actual and inferential. An illustration of actual information is the case where a player shows out of a suit After following to two rounds. When this happens, you are certain that he started with two cards in the suit and, of course, that indicates exactly how many cards his partner has in the same suit. You can’t go wrong on this sort of information unless the opponent who shows out of the suit has revoked. But then you are rewarded with a two-trick penalty, so you don’t have to worry too much about that.
Basis of Guess
Inferential information is the kind you get by guessing at the opponent’s distributions, basing your “guesses” on their bidding and play of the cards. Oddly enough, such inferences are inclined to be more accurate when you are playing against good opponents. In other words their bids and plays can usually be counted on to be orthodox. But drawing inferences from the bidding and play of Mr. Muzzy is like building a house on quicksand.
Take today’s hand, for example. The accepted opening from three cards to the queen in your partner’s bid suit, is the lowest card. Mr. Muzzy doesn’t know this—or if he knows it, he ignored it.
Queen Opened
His opening was the queen of hearts. Mr. Dale won with the king and cashed the ace on which Mr. Muzzy played the deuce. Next came the jack of hearts. Poor Mr. Champion never even thought of the right play. He “knew” Mr. Muzzy was now out of hearts. Still confident of making the hand (and why wouldn’t he be?), he ruffed with the jack of spades. After that, there was no way to prevent Mr. Muzzy from winning a trick with his ten of spades and the sure club loser completed the set.