Lead: 
3
I once heard an expert make this rather pompous observation: “If you took a photo of a world-class declarer’s thought process as he plays a hand and showed it to the average social player, the average guy wouldn’t believe it.”
I think not. An expert’s thinking may range far and wide, but much of it amounts to simple logic. To match your play against two experts, cover the East-West cards. In a World Championship, West leads a trump against your four hearts.
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Say you win with dummy’s eight and decide not to attack diamonds; instead you let the queen of spades ride. West takes the king and leads another trump. You take the A-J of spades, ruff your last spade in dummy and try a diamond to your king. Alas, West takes the ace and queen, and the defense also gets a club.
If you went down, you’re in good company: A U.S. declarer (one of the world’s best) played the same way. But at the other table, South looked deeply into the deal and decided West’s trump lead indicated side honors he was reluctant to lead from. So South won the first trump in his hand and led a low spade.
West had two losing options. If he took the king and led another trump, South would cash the queen of spades, take the ace of clubs, pitch dummy’s last club on the ace of spades, ruff a club and lead a diamond. The defense would get two diamonds and a spade.
If instead West withheld his king of spades, dummy’s queen would win, and South would take the ace and ruff his other spades in dummy, losing two diamonds and a club.
