The relentless quest for over-tricks By Andrew Kambites

Source: Mr Bridge… The relentless quest for over-tricks By Andrew Kambites

PLAYING this hand in a duplicate pairs event you receive the lead of the 3. Do you try the Q at trick 1?

9 6 4  K 8 2  A Q 9 8  A 7 3

A Q  9 5 3  K J 7 3 2  K Q 2

East/West Game

Playing rubber bridge you would be foolish to give it the slightest thought. You have nine top tricks, and nothing can be allowed to endanger your contract. Rise with the A and claim.

Playing pairs it is not that simple. A virtuous +600 will be of little use to you if the travelling score sheet reveals a string of 630s. You must at least be prepared to consider trying the Q at trick 1, hoping that North has underled the K. Your logic should proceed as follows:

1. The contract is normal, so you can imagine every other West trying to make 3NT.

2. Your contract is in danger only if South can take the K and return a heart from a holding like J107. For you to fail, you need the spade finesse and the heart finesse to let you down, and even then it is by no means unlikely that South will return his partner’s suit.

3. Other declarers may have been blessed with a heart lead.

You are much more likely to make an over-trick by trying the Q than you are to go down in 3NT, and since it will be the number of over-tricks that will determine who scores well you must finesse the Q. If this still seems dubious, look at it this way. In taking the spade finesse you are not endangering a contract, you are merely staking the 20% of match points that are likely to be your lot if you make just nine tricks in 3NT, in the hope of increasing your score to 60%.

When you are in a contract that is unlikely to be duplicated by the rest of the field you must keep your mind fixed firmly on what is likely to be going on elsewhere. In the following example your imaginative partner has abandoned the major suit fit.

10 6 3  A 9 6  Q J 10  A 6 3 2

A K Q J 4 2  8 2  A 8 4  8 4

Game All

West	North	East	South
		1	Pass
2NT	Pass	3NT

At this stage it is irrelevant whether you approve of his raise to 3NT. The important thing to realise is that most of the field will be in 4 played by East. You must try to estimate their score and at least equal it. They will all take the diamond finesse, making 620 or 650 depending on who has the K. Therefore there is little point in your settling for the safe 600, which seems to give you a very poor score.

On a heart lead take your A (ducking won’t help because as soon as you look likely to isolate hearts they can switch to clubs) and run the Q. You will score either +660 (for a top) or something unspeakable (for a bottom).

A relatively small adjustment to the hands can make a mountain of difference: On the next hand North leads the 5 to South’s Q and your K. You have nine top tricks. Do you intend to take the diamond finesse for an over-trick?

10 6 3  K 9 6  A Q 5  A 6 3 2

A K Q J 4 2  8 2  9 7 4  J 4

Game All

West	North	East	South
		1	Pass
3NT	All Pass

This time events have turned out very favourably for you. North appears to have underled his A. So those in 4 are likely to be defeated even if the diamond finesse works. +600 is likely to give you a magnificent result. So take your nine tricks. This is not the time to be greedy!

By now you will have realised that you should be constantly estimating ‘normality’, with the object of beating it, or at least equalling it. An abnormal situation can arise as a result of a number of factors. We have just seen how particularly good, or bad, or just imaginative bidding can lead to a contract that differs from the rest of the room.

Another factor becomes relevant when you play a system, or style, that is different from the rest of the room. If you play the strong No Trump in a club where everybody else plays the weak No Trump it is quite likely that the other tables will declare the same contract but the other way round. Transfer bidding has the same effect. You may well receive a very different opening lead to everybody else, either to your advantage or disadvantage.

This is nobody’s fault, but ignore it at your peril! How do you react to the following hand? North leads the Q, enabling the defenders to take the first two club tricks and switch to the 5.

A J 9 6 3  9 2  K Q 10 2  9 6

K Q 7 5 4 2  A 4 3  A 4  K 8

Love All

West	North	East	South
1	Pass	31	Pass
3	Pass	3	Pass
4	All Pass

(1) Not ideal, but what is better?

There is nothing wrong with your contract, but in most clubs very few players would open the West hand as dealer. Usually East would end up as declarer in 4. This would protect East’s club holding from the opening lead, and make it easy for declarer to pitch at least one of his clubs on a long diamond in dummy. So far this hand has progressed in an extremely unfavourable manner for you, and you need to do something, however risky, to redress the balance. Try drawing trumps, cashing the A and finessing your 10. If South has Jxxx you will be able to dispose of both dummy’s hearts, and the resulting +450 will at least put you level with the rest of the field.