The Rule of 40 by Leuben Zaykov

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Let’s start with an example. The auction goes:

1	Pass	2NT (11-12 HCP)	pass (You)
3NT	All pass

(You) : 109x   AJx   xxx   A108x

What to lead?
First, let’s analyze the auction. The raise of 2NT to 3NT promises (12) 13+ HCP at least. Therefore partner’s MAXIMUM is 7 HCP (very optimistically 8 if both opponents are on the minimum). Responder’s 11-12 + 9 (yours) + opener’s (12) 13 ≥ 7! Let’s try to determine how many tricks you can make. There are 40 HCP in the deck (The Rule of 40!)  and the play is for 13 tricks. Roughly each trick is won by 3-3½ HCP, disregarding any suit lengths.

HINT #1 —Partner’s hand can produce about 2 tricks  based on point count (HCP). You have 2 tricks yourself, so it looks like 3NT is  makeable.

Not so fast! Partner may have a long suit and, hopefully, declarer cannot make 9 tricks before knocking off  your 2 Aces.

HINT #2 —Partner must have 5-card suit. Which 5-card suit?

It’s unlikely to have clubs after 2 NT. That leaves hearts or spades. If spades, however, partner must have 2+ honors and that almost empties his/her hand. So it leaves the hearts as the only option.

J of hearts seems the best lead opposite:

5 small hearts with 2 entries
5 hearts with a top honor and an entry.

TEST YOUR JUDGEMENT AND FIND THE BEST LEAD

Hand # 1:					Hand # 2:
1	Pass (You)	1	pass		1	Pass	1	Pass (You)
2NT	Pass	3NT	All Pass		2	Pass	3NT	All Pass

Hand # 1: Find a lead with QJx, J9xx, KJx, Jxx

Hand # 2: What is the expert lead with K1087, Axx, 10x, A10xx

HINT: Apply the above considerations!

Answers:

Hand #1
You have 9 HCP. Provided opponents play 3NT with 24+ (most probably with 25+), that leaves your partner with (7) 6 HCP and you should play partner for 5-card diamonds suit and an entry. The lead is J of diamonds. Don’t be afraid that  the opponents might have A and Q of diamonds. Then partner probably has either 2 entries or stops one of the opponents suit, hopefully spades.

Hand #2
The opponents play 3 NT, not 4. Most probably it’s a 4-3 fit (the declarer seems to be 4-3-3-3 or 4-3-2-4 and dummy balanced, i.e. no singleton). You have 11 HCP. Partner can’t have more than 4 (optimistically 5). Lead a small heart, you have too many clubs to hope that partner has 5.

Summary
Always analyze the auction. Visualize what hand partner must have to succeed, both in auction and play! Don’t forget The Rule of 40 —Each deck contains 40 HCP.

Leuben Zaykov

E-mail: leuben@acanac.net

BBO name: Leuben2006

Skype name: leuben2006

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