Bidding
is not an exact science and it is usually
impossible for even the best bidders to
know, during the auction, the exact chance
of success that a contract will have. Still,
it is wise to have a general idea of when to
bid conservatively and when to bid
aggressively.
Consider slam bidding. The "break-even" point for small slams is roughly
50 percent. Over the long run you will
neither gain nor lose points by attempting
six-level contracts that will make half the
time - for example, that depend on a
successful finesse. In contrast, most grand
slam attempts are worthwhile only if the
odds are at least 2-1 in your favour (mainly
because you lose not only the game bonus but
also the small slam bonus).
Try to find a line of play that will justify South's bash at 7
.
West leads the
10.
South deals Both vulnerable
|
West |
North |
East |
South |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
Pass |
3NT |
Pass |
4 |
|
Pass |
4 |
Pass |
4 (1) |
|
Pass |
4 (1) |
Pass |
7 |
|
fin |
|
|
|
(1) Cue-bid agreeing diamonds
Opening Lead:
10
A straightforward line of play for declarer would be to take the spade
finesse to discard his heart loser, but this
is only a 50 percent proposition,
unacceptable odds for a grand slam. Ruffing
two spades in the hope of dropping the king
is inferior to the finesse, while trying to
ruff the heart loser in dummy (by drawing
only two rounds of trumps and throwing a
heart on the fourth round of clubs) requires
a very favourable lie of the cards. Can you
see anything better than the spade finesse?
Our declarer did. He won the opening lead with the
K,
crossed to the
9,
cashed the
A,
ruffed a spade, crossed to dummy's
J, and
ruffed another spade. Then he crossed his
fingers, led a second club to the ace, and
ruffed the last spade with the
A.
He went to the
K,
cashed the
K
to draw the last trump (discarding a heart
from hand), and claimed. His hand was high,
with the
A
and good clubs remaining. On this line
declarer's success depended essentially on a
three-two trump break (with no adverse ruff),
roughly a 2-1 favourite - the right odds.
Declarer's play indeed justified his bidding.
The four hands were: