Take All Your Chances, No.10 By Eddie Kantar

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With only your side vulnerable, West opens 3S, partner passes and East ups the ante to 4S. You have no qualms…

By Eddie Kantar
On 4 December, 2016 At 13:17

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December 04       

aaxx

With only your side vulnerable, West opens 3, partner passes and East ups the ante to 4. You have no qualms about bidding 5, and everyone passes. The Q is led. Plan the play.

Solution

The full deal: aaxx

You are in the dummy for the last time and have to decide whether to lead up to the K or take the club finesse. The club finesse is much less than 50% because you can’t pick up K-x-x(x) in the East hand. Play the odds and lead a diamond up to the king, a 50% play unless West started with a singleton diamond and didn’t lead it – not too likely as most players lead singletons even when they don’t have one. If the K loses to the ace and today is your lucky day, the K will drop under the ace (13%). You will make this contract about 55% of the time.

Even if you had eight clubs to the A-K-J-10, you should still lead a diamond at trick two as you have a reasonable chance of dropping the Q (a little more than 50%) if the diamond king loses to West’s ace. Two chances are better than one.

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